THE GOOD: Hawaii, California, Iowa, Illinois, Kentucky, Maryland, New York, Rhode Island.
THE BAD: California, Minnesota, Illinois, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Maine.
THE UGLY: Iowa, Minnesota, New Hampshire, US Congress.
THE GOOD (From Beyond the Left Coast to Providence Plantations)
Hawaii: Neil Abercrombie, a liberal Democrat, won the Governor's race easily. He's vowed to sign an 'all-but-marriage' civil unions bill should the legislature pass it. The legislature passed one last year, but it was vetoed by the Republican Governor. The previous legislature had a 23D - 2R split in the Senate; now it will be 24-1. The House used to be 45D - 6R; Democrats lost two or three seats this election. Still there is no obvious reason the legislature could not pass the bill in their next session.
California:
- Kamala Harris has likely won the race for Attorney General. If she holds on to her lead that means no one from the State of California will attempt to defend Proposition 8 in Perry v Schwarzenegger (soon to be Perry v Brown according to my lawyer friend) as it moves through the Federal Courts.
- The defense attorney in Perry v Schwarzenegger, Andy Pugno, ran for State Assembly as a Republican (surprise!) in a district near Sacramento. He lost. (Yay!). Richard Pan, a professor at UC Davis, won. As an aside, the number of openly gay legislators in California is now seven.
- The first known transgender judge in the United States will likely win her election. Victoria Kowalowski, with a 3300 vote lead out of 230,000 votes cast, will have defeated John Creighton to become an Alameda County judge if the remaining ballots hold true. I voted for her.
- Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer, both strong supporters of LGBT equality, got elected and re-elected, respectively, with large majorities.
Iowa: Iowa Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal has vowed to block any vote on an amendment to the state's constitution that would ban same-sex marriage.
Illinois: It looks like Pat Quinn will continue as Governor of Illinois. and Democrats retained control of both Houses of the Illinois legislature. Governor Quinn has stated that:
... civil unions could be legalized in Illinois before the end of the year...
Quinn said he believes the measure has enough votes to pass during the legislature's fall veto session.
Kentucky: An openly gay man was elected Mayor of Lexington, Kentucky. Jim Gray, a "millionaire construction magnate" defeated the incumbent, Jim Newberry.
Maryland: Martin O'Malley, re-elected as Governor
has said that if the Maryland state legislature approves a marriage equality law and sends it to his desk he will sign it.
The Maryland legislature continued to remain dominated by Democrats. Democrats now have a clear path to passing marriage equality in Maryland and Rhode Island (see below), should they so choose.
New York: Republicans have not yet taken control of the New York State Senate. At least three races are still undecided. Even if they ultimately do, their leader, Dean Skelos
signaled a willingness to have his conference consider taking marriage up on the Senate floor should they regain control.
At least one, and possibly two or three, new pro-equality Democratic State Senators will be entering the legislature. Last year's marriage equality bill was defeated in a catastrophic 24-38 vote, but there is hope, if not logic, that a couple of Democrats will switch and then a few Republicans would join in to reverse that defeat.
The new Governor, Andrew Cuomo, is stauchly pro-equality and has vowed to work with the legislature to get a bill passed. (Those kinds of promises have been made before.)
Rhode Island:
- Lincoln Chaffee, and Independent, was elected Governor. He has repeatedly stated that he will sign a marriage equality bill if it is passed by the legislature. Republicans picked up four seats in both the House and Senate, but not enough to wrest control from Democrats. The way is now open for Rhode Island marriage equality, but it still needs to be pushed through the Legislature. Expect NOM and the usual suspects to mount a fierce battle here in 2011.
- Openly gay David Cicilline was elected to Congress in Rhode Island's 1st Congressional District. He will be the fourth openly gay or lesbian Congressperson.
THE BAD (From Palm Springs to Bangor)
California: Steve Pougnet, the openly gay mayor of Palm Springs, got beaten in his bid to take out Mary Bono Mack. He lost by about 10%.
Minnesota: It looks like Mark Dayton, the Democrat, will win the Governor's race, although there might have to a recount. And he has pledged to sign an equal marriage rights bill if one is passed. And a vote was expected to happen this year. That sounds like good news, so what's the catch?
The catch is that, totally unexpectedly, both Houses of the Minnesota legislature flipped from Democratic to Republican control. Give up any hope of getting any equality legislation through those bodies. The only hope here is that both Houses can be retaken in 2012. (see also Minnesota in THE UGLY, below).
Illinois A strong supporter of LGBT equality, Alex Giannoulias, went down to defeat by just a little over 2% in his bid for a Senate seat.
Pennsylvania: Joe Sestak, another strong supporter of equal rights, lost by a nose in his bid to become a US Senator. Patrick Murphy, who led the charge for repeal of Don't Ask, Don't Tell in the US House of Representatives, also lost, along with a large swath of other Pennsylvania Democratic Congresspeople.
New Hampshire: Paul Hodes, Democratic candidate for Senator and strong LGBT rights supporter, went down in flames (60% - 37%). Ann Kuster, a progressive and another strong supporter of LGBT rights, lost in a squeaker in NH-02 (48% - 47%).
Maine: The odious Tea Party Republican Paul LePage won the governor's race in a three-way contest. Had Libby Mitchell, the Democrat -- who managed to get a whopping 19% of the vote, dropped out it is all but certain that the independent, Eliot Cutler, would have won. And that would have meant that marriage equality would have been back on the table, as Cutler (along with Mitchell) has said that he would work for such a bill and sign it.
Now there is no hope for another attempt at marriage equality in Maine until 2015.
Aside: I have no idea why Libby Mitchell was so widely disliked. A Democrat in a democratic state; elected to the State Senate and selected to be the Senate's President in 2008; How the f*** do you manage to end up with less than 20% of the vote with that kind of track record? She has the dubious distinction of getting even less votes percentagewise than Kendrick Meek who managed 20% in his doomed quest for a US Senate seat in Florida in anotheer three-way race.
Sigh.
THE UGLY (From the Heartland to the Beltway)
Iowa:Three Supreme Court judges were booted out of their jobs by the elec torate for having decided (unanimously, 7-0) that the Iowa State Constitution guaranteed marriage equality for all its citizens. All three judges lost by a vote of approximately 54% - 46%.
Iowa is, or at least used to be, a better state than that. May the ghost of Rose Bird haunt your cornfields for a long time.
For details on the judges and the campaign to oust them see Three Who Do Not Deserve To Lose.
Minnesota: Because Mark Dayton may not become governor until a recount is completed the current Governor, Tim Pawlenty, remains governor. Furthermore the new legislature will have a Republican majority in both houses (see THE BAD). That means the new Republican legislature and the old Republican governor could pass anti-LGBT legislation (along with tax cuts and other conservative bills) until Dayton becomes Governor with no practical way for such new laws to be revoked.
This could get very ugly very quickly.
New Hampshire: Not only did Paul Hodes and Ann Kuster lose, but the New Hampshire legislature's Democratic caucus was decimated. It's Senate went from a 14-10 Democratic majority to a 5-19 Republican majority. It's 400 member House, which used to be controlled by Democrats, will now have just a tad more than 100 Democrats.
This means that there is nothing that can stop the Republicans from repealing the state's year-old marriage equality bill. Even if the re-elected Democratic Governor John Lynch vetoes the measure the Republicans has enough votes (and plenty to spare) to override that veto.
We may be on the verge of seeing another Proposition-8 style lawsuit, or a challenge to such a repeal via the New Hampshire constitution. Article 2 of its bill of rights reads:
All men have certain natural, essential, and inherent rights - among which are, the enjoying and defending life and liberty; acquiring, possessing, and protecting, property; and, in a word, of seeking and obtaining happiness. Equality of rights under the law shall not be denied or abridged by this state on account of race, creed, color, sex or national origin.
The US Congress: Say goodbye to any LGBT-equality legislation for the forseeable future (or, for that matter, any progressive legislation at all). Not only will there be a Republican majority in the House in the 112th Congress, but it is quite possible that there will be Republican majority in the Senate in the 113th Congress (since far more Democrats are up for re-election than Republicans in 2012), and/or that Democrats will be unable to take back the House.
Since the Administration's party generally loses mid-term elections, even if President Obama is re-elected, it is therefore hard to project Democratic majorities in the House and Senate for the 114th Congress. And even if there were Democratic majorities, we know how well that worked out.
All men and women are created equal. Except for some.
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So there it is. 2011 will bring legislative battles for marriage equality in Rhode Island and possibly Maryland and New York. A lopsided battle against marriage equality will almost certainly take place in New Hampshire, and possibly Minnesota. Civil union legislation might happen in Hawaii and possibly Illinois.
As 2012 rolls around all eyes will be on California as my state attempts to overturn Proposition 8 (if the courts have not already declared it unconstitutional). But that's a diary for another day.
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