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| Will New York's new governor, Democrat Andrew Cuomo, have a State Senate willing to support him in enacting a marriage equality law? |
New governor is a Democrat and pro-marriage equality, but what about the Legislature?
BY PAUL SCHINDLER -
Senate majority at stake, advocates made inroads on November 2 with new supporters elected in Queens, Rockland County, and Buffalo.
However, with one incumbent Democrat who supported gay marriage on the Senate floor last year losing and three others very much in the fight of their political lives as votes continue to be counted, the final post-election tally of pro-equality senators remains in doubt.
And, compounded by the defeat of an upstate Democrat who voted against marriage equality last year, it is not even clear which party will control the Senate come January –– a factor that could prove decisive in determining when the issue might again get consideration on the floor.
Despite the continued uncertainty, advocacy groups pushing for a Senate majority in favor of gay marriage emphasized the positive lessons that came out of this year’s voting (see related article).
The State Assembly has approved gay marriage three times and Governor-Elect Andrew Cuomo is strongly on board as well, so the Senate remains the entire ballgame.
When the issue went down to defeat last December, the vote was 38-24, with eight Democrats joining all 30 Republicans in opposition.
Since then, Queens Democrat Hiram Monserrate, a “no” vote last year, was expelled due to a domestic violence conviction, and his seat was taken by José Peralta, who voted three times for marriage equality while in the State Assembly.
The election produced two additional “yes” votes from Queens, with Assemblyman Michael Gianaris replacing Democrat George Onorato, who retired, and former City Councilman Tony Avella beating longtime Republican incumbent Frank Padavan.
In Buffalo, Erie County Legislator Tim Kennedy –– who beat anti-equality Democratic Senator William Stachowski in the September primary –– bested his Republican opponent, Assemblyman Jack Quinn.
In Rockland and Orange Counties, just northwest of New York City, Democrat David Carlucci, the town clerk of Clarkstown, beat Rockland County Executive Scott Vanderhoef, to win the seat that has been vacant since the death of Republican Senator Thomas Morahan earlier this year.
Those results add up to a gain since last December of five pro-equality votes in seats that last year contributed to defeat. Among those five seats, two of them represent flips from Republican to Democrat, in a chamber where Democrats currently hold a razor-thin 32-30 advantage.
However, four Democratic incumbents who voted for marriage equality ran into problems on Election Day, with one definitively losing. Long Island’s Brian Foley, a freshman senator from Suffolk, failed in his bid for reelection, running 16 points behind 30-year-old Republican Lee Zeldin, an Iraq War veteran who ran an unsuccessful but strong race for Congress two years ago.
Two-term Nassau County Democrat Craig Johnson was running 800 votes behind his Republican opponent with nearly all the votes counted at mid-day on November 3.
Long-time Westchester Democratic incumbent Suzi Oppenheimer –– whose GOP opponent, real estate developer Bob Cohen, received a last-minute boost from a New York Times endorsement and from Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s help –– appeared headed for a recount, but she appears to be several hundred votes behind.
And in the Buffalo area, Democrat Antoine Thompson was similarly running neck and neck with his Republican challenger, though in that race the incumbent has a several hundred vote advantage. A recount is likely there as well.
A fifth Democrat, Darrel Aubertine from the northeast corner of the state, who voted “no” last year, was defeated in his reelection bid.
Assuming that the Johnson, Oppenheimer, and Thompson races remain uncertain, the post-election tally of support for marriage equality stands somewhere between 25 and 28 –– versus the 24 votes last December.
Advocates have always premised their efforts on the assumption that having 28 or 29 committed “yes” votes would be enough to bring along the additional three or four needed from among other Democrats and a handful of Republicans supportive of the issue but unwilling to take the vote unless it’s a done deal.
The other key calculation, however, is the partisan split in the Senate. With the Carlucci and Avella Democratic pickups offset by the Foley and Aubertine losses, the three open races will determine whether the Democrats hold 32 seats, split the chamber evenly with the Republicans, or fall back into the minority.
When Republicans held the majority through the end of 2008, their leadership refused to allow a floor vote on either marriage equality or transgender civil rights (which has at least 31 supporters on the record in the current Senate).
At a Log Cabin Republican gathering in Manhattan on October 12, however, Minority Leader Dean Skelos of Nassau County signaled a willingness to have his conference consider taking marriage up on the Senate floor should they regain control. The gay Republicans who heard Skelos make those remarks will likely be at his door should he become the new majority leader.
Another uncertainty comes from the possibility that Democrats and Republicans could be split evenly in the new Senate at 31-31. When the Senate was briefly faced with such a deadlock during a revolt within the Democratic majority in the summer of 2009, observers could not agree on which matters the lieutenant governor –– a post that was vacant at the time –– has the authority to break ties.
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