Well, here we are down to the last week. Polls are all over the place, voters are angry, commentators are certain their opinions and so much is at stake. Already millions of voters have cast early ballots and others are struggling to decide if they even want to vote. So what is happening and what should we be looking for on election night?
1. Is this the year of "The Tea Party?" In fact, the fate of strongly backed Tea Party candidates could determine if we have total chaos in the Senate over the next two years or if the country rejects their politics of extremism. What should we be watching? Well Carl Paladino in New York is already dead in the water. The races to watch are Rand Paul in Kentucky, Joe Miller in Alaska, Ken Buck in Colorado and Sharron Angele in Nevada. If all four of these candidates win we could have a very difficult and contentious two years ahead. In addition, we should be concerned about America.
2. Had being against LGBT rights hurt some of the Republican candidates? When Charlie Crist running for Governor of Florida supported an amendment to ban marriage equality, he dropped almost overnight in the polls and Democrat Ken Meek's total went up accordingly. Observers in California indicate that Meg Whitman and Carly Fiorina are having problems because they embraced Proposition 8 and said they would appeal the court case. Paladino stepped in it when he went on his anti-LGBT rant in Brooklyn. We are close to the point where being against LGBT equality actually hurts you at the polls! Watch the races in Florida, California and also Congresswoman's Mary Bono's race in Palm Springs.
3. Has Appalachia become the new "Old South'? Some of President Obama's worst states were in Appalachia and there is not doubt that some of those voters had a great deal of difficulty with President Obama being African-American. In addition, some of the most bitter anti-LGBT opposition has surfaced in those states. Increasingly we are seeing the most ugly politics from states like Kentucky, West Virginia and Arkansas. Governor Joe Manchin has been one of the most popular governors in years and yet he is in a tough race. If he loses and Rand Paul wins with a significant margin, the Appalachian states could replace states like Mississippi and Alabama as the haven for intolerance.
4. Is this the election we will have learned not to pay attention to the tons of polls? Seems almost every week in this complex and difficult election year we get new results sometimes with wildly divergent conclusions. Many of the polling companies are not doing in person interviews and as a result are not polling folks with cell phones. How soon before one of these Internet geniuses finds a new way to test voter sentiment over the Internet? To find out this watch the races Senator Boxer's in California, Senator Murray in Washington and the races in Illinois. If they are runaway races then the pollsters have to examine themselves.
5. Can the Democrats pull off a "Harry Truman Miracle" this election? If the Democrats narrowly maintain the control of the House of Representatives, I sure would love writing the headlines the day after the election.
for more from David visit Live from Hell's Kitchen.
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